What I Tell You Three Times Is True

August 26, 2015

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Posted by TennisNews.com on August 26, 2015 in Tennis News

The US Open seeds strictly by the rankings. That’s probably perfectly reasonable; there is enough hardcourt on the schedule that there is no reason to adjust the seedings the way they do at Wimbledon. But we can dream….

And one things that does seem to be true is that some players are better at Slams than others. Psychology matter! So the ideal US Open seed list might well be based in part on something other than the raw rankings. We thought we’d produce a true US Open formula. Based on the idea of the Wimbledon formula, but with the modifications derived exclusively from the U. S. Open.

Here’s how it works: We take the US Open seeds. We take their ranking points. And then we add back scores from recent US Opens. We decided to look at three years, and to count the player’s best US Open result, plus half of his next-best result. So, for instance, Andy Murray this week has 8840 points. In 2014, he made the Open quarterfinal (360 points). In 2013, he also made the quarterfinal (360 points). In 2012, he won the event (2000 points). So he gets to count a full 2000 points from his best result (the 2012 title), and half his next-best result (either of the quarterfinals; that’s 180 points). So we add 2180 historical points to his 8840 points and get 11020 points. And so forth for the rest of the seeds. Where does that leave us? It gives us this seed list (we included the entire Top 35 in case there are withdrawals):
1. Djokovic: 16665 [ATP Seed: 1]
2. Murray: 11020 [ATP Seed: 3]
3. Federer: 9965 [ATP Seed: 2]
4. Nishikori: 7450 [ATP Seed: 4]
5. Wawrinka: 6610 [ATP Seed: 5]
6. Berdych: 6130 [ATP Seed: 6]
7. Cilic: 5730 [ATP Seed: 9]
8. Nadal: 5680 [ATP Seed: 8]
9. Ferrer: 4595 [ATP Seed: 7]
10. Raonic: 3150 [ATP Seed: 10]
11. Gasquet: 3050 [ATP Seed: 12]
12. Simon: 2955 [ATP Seed: 11]
13. Isner: 2370 [ATP Seed: 13]
14. Monfils: 2232.5 [ATP Seed: 16]
15. Goffin: 2225 [ATP Seed: 14]
16. Anderson: 2112.5 [ATP Seed: 15]
17. Dimitrov: 1920 [ATP Seed: 17]
18. Robredo: 1905 [ATP Seed: 26]
19. Tsonga: 1857.5 [ATP Seed: 19]
20. Thiem: 1825 [ATP Seed: 20]
21. Lopez: 1800 [ATP Seed: 18]
22. Karlovic: 1712.5 [ATP Seed: 21]
22. Bautista Agut: 1712.5 [ATP Seed: 23]
24. Troicki: 1569 [ATP Seed: 22]
25. Seppi: 1542.5 [ATP Seed: 25]
26. Tomic: 1532.5 [ATP Seed: 24]
27. Kohlschreiber: 1500 [ATP Seed: 29]
28. Chardy: 1412.5 [ATP Seed: 27]
29. Sock: 1385 [ATP Seed: 28]
30. Fognini: 1277.5 [ATP Seed: 32]
31. Mannarino: 1275 [ATP Seed: 34]
31. Mayer: 1275 [ATP Seed: 33]
33. Garcia-Lopez: 1257.5 [ATP Seed: 31]
34. Bellucci: 1240 [ATP Seed: 30]
35. Coric: 1196 [ATP Seed: 35]

Lo and behold, this sort of adjustment produces a change all the way up at #2: Andy Murray’s 2012 US Open title lets him move ahead of Roger Federer to earn the #2 seed. Strangely enough, the next three guys are all unchanged, but then we see Marin Cilic rise from #9 to #7 because of his title last year. Other than the Federer/Murray swap, that’s the most significant change. The other change that would affect the seeding tiers include Tommy Robredo’s promotion into the #17-#24 block, displacing Bernard Tomic.

Incidentally, if we want to see who has the most US Open points over the last three years, it’s this:
1. Djokovic: 3120
2. Murray: 2720
3. Cilic: 2360
4. Nadal: 2000
5. Nishikori: 1300
6. Federer: 1260
6. Wawrinka: 1260
6. Berdych: 1260
9. Ferrer: 1170
10. Gasquet: 990
11. Robredo: 650
12. Raonic: 540
12. Kohlschreiber: 540
14. Monfils: 405
15. Simon: 270
15. Isner: 270
15. Lopez: 270
18. Tsonga: 225
18. Bautista Agut: 225
18. Mayer: 225
21. Dimitrov: 200
22. Sock: 190
23. Chardy: 180
23. Thiem: 180
23. Mannarino: 180
26. Fognini: 145
26. Anderson: 145
26. Seppi: 145
29. Tomic: 135
30. Karlovic: 125
31. Goffin: 110
32. Garcia-Lopez: 100
33. Coric: 70
34. Bellucci: 65
35. Troicki: 10