Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.

Now the last push begins.

The WTA Race doesn’t end with the Asian circuit; the final chance to qualify for Singapore is still Moscow. But Moscow is a low-level Premier. Almost certainly the events in China and Japan will be the decisive tournaments in settling the Race (or, at least, seven of the eight spots). And the first of the Asian Premier events is the Pan Pacific in Tokyo.

There is a bit of “shabby genteel” about this event; it used to be at the top of the tier scale, but it is now the lowest type of premier — and it is showing in the field. Still, it has a much longer history than the Chinese events that have usurped its points. That perhaps helped; although it has none of the Top Five, it features four of the Top Ten and eight of the Top Fifteen. In other words, of the players from #6 to #15, it lacks only #7 Flavia Pennetta (who wasn’t Top Fifteen when entries closed) and #14 Timea Bacsinszky. Caroline Wozniacki is the #1 seed. Ana Ivanovic is #2 despite the fact that she wouldn’t even be one of the top four seeds if the new rankings were used. Garbine Muguruza, who is in a bit of a slump, is nonetheless #3 and in Wozniacki’s quarter. Karolina Pliskova, who like Ivanovic just fell out of the Top Ten and would be seeded lower based on the new rankings, still ended up with the #4 seed and the last bye. Wozniacki in the quarterfinal would face #5 Angelique Kerber, who on the new rankings should have been seeded for the semifinal; Ivanovic would face #6 Carla Suarez Navarro, who is now ranked ahead of Ivanovic (but who is in a significant slump); Pliskova would face #7 Agnieszka Radwanska; and Muguruza would face #8 Bencic.

Not all of the seeds look likely to be challenged, but some could well be. Wozniacki is likely to open against red-hot Kristina Mladenovic. Kerber has to start against fast-rising Daria Gavrilova, then Madison Brengle or Zarina Diyas (although those two are both struggling). Muguruza will likely open against Barbora Strycova. Bencic’s first match will probably be against Samantha Stosur, the #2 unseeded player. Radwanska starts against CoCo Vandeweghe, then Elina Svitolina, the top unseeded player. Suarez Navarro’s second round could be against Dominika Cibulkova. And Ivanovic will open against either upset artist Camila Giorgi or against Caroline Garcia.

There are 28 players in the draw at the Pan Pacific. Interestingly, the top player at Seoul is #29 Irina-Camelia Begu. There are, of course some players in Tokyo ranked below Begu (fifteen of them, in fact, if we counted right). But Begu’s ranking is an interesting token of the gap between Premier and International events. She is the #1 seed. Fast-rising Anna Karolina Schmiedlova is #2. Sloane Stephens is #3 and in Schmiedlova’s half; Varvara Lepchenko, who seems to have come to life after a long slump, is #4. #5, in Schmiedlova’s quarter, is Mona Barthel; #6, drawn against Stephens, is Alexandra Dulgheru; #7, up against Begu, is Julia Goerges; and the last seed goes to Alison van Uytvanck, who is in Lepchenko’s quarter. Since the cutoff for seeding is well below #50, there aren’t a lot of strong unseeded players, although we note that Lepchenko could face Watson in round two. Also, Kimiko Date-Krumm made the interesting choice to take a wildcard here rather than in Tokyo; she will face Ajla Tomljanovic for the right to face Stephens in round two.

The draw for Guangzhou is not yet out, but it has a history of being weak (usually much weaker than Seoul, which tells you something about where players like to play). And it looks as if we have to release this preview today, given the schedule of events. So we can’t really preview the Chinese tournament. If history is any guide, though, we’d expect no Top Twenty players and a seeding cutoff around #60.

The Rankings

This is one of those weeks when calendar shift really makes a difference, because the event coming off is Wuhan, a Premier Five. It’s worth almost twice the points of the Pan Pacific, more than three times the points of the other events. So that’s a lot of points coming off. The title last year went to Petra Kvitova, over Eugenie Bouchard (neither of whom is playing this week; Kvitova presumably is resting and Bouchard, who wanted to play the Pan Pacific, was forced to pull out due to her head injury). The semifinalists last year were Caroline Wozniacki and Elina Svitolina; quarterfinalists were Alize Cornet, Timea Bacsinszky (as a qualifier — what a difference a year makes!), Caroline Garcia, and Angelique Kerber.

Amazingly, Kvitova can lose those points and it won’t affect her ranking; she’ll remain #4, although a weaker #4. But with Lucie Safarova sidelined, Kvitova is likely to stay safe for a while. Nor can Wozniacki gain enough to catch Safarova; she has too much to defend. Indeed, she might fall to #7 behind Flavia Pennetta. The top three — Serena Williams, Simona Halep, Maria Sharapova — are safe.

But everything below that is up for grabs. Garbine Muguruza or Carla Suarez Navarro could pass Pennetta and/or Wozniacki; Muguruza or Kerber or Suarez Navarro could lose their Top Ten spots to Karolina Pliskova or Ana Ivanovic or Agnieszka Radwanska or maybe even Belinda Bencic. It’s almost as wild as a Slam week in the #6-#15 range, simply because so many players are playing.

Bacsinszky would be in danger of falling out of the Top Fifteen, except that the next player down, Svitolina, has even more to defend, so Svitolina is more likely to fall than rise. And no one from #17 Petkovic to #21 Errani is active in Tokyo, so it doesn’t appear we’ll have any new Top Fifteen players. We could easily see Samantha Stosur hit the Top Twenty, though.

Bouchard is going to fall from #26 to around #40.

Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.