Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.

Welcome to the world after the end of the world.

As you have probably seen mentioned, Serena Williams is done for the year. So, naturally, she won’t be in Beijing. Which just happens to be the year’s last Premier Mandatory event. It’s a big, big chance for somebody. If Serena is going to see her #1 ranking threatened this year, putting an early thousand points in the bank would be a big help!

Which means that, if Serena’s top spot is threatened, it probably won’t be Maria Sharapova doing the threatening. Because Sharapova isn’t here either; last year’s champion is still too injured to play. Which means we have only one of the Top Three: Simona Halep is the top seed — although she doesn’t have a bye, because she didn’t last long enough in Wuhan. There are only four byes in Beijing, for #15 seed Roberta Vinci, #5 seed Garbine Muguruza, #10 seed Angelique Kerber, and unseeded Venus Williams. It’s not often that you see an unseeded player with a bye, or three byes in the top half and only one in the bottom — but this is an unusual event. To top off all the other strangeness, the seedings bear very little resemblance to the actual rankings, because things changed so much at Wuhan. Halep, as mentioned, is the top seed. Petra Kvitova is #2 even though she is in danger of falling behind Muguruza this week. Flavia Pennetta, who will make the last appearance of her career at a mandatory event, and her first since winning the US Open, is #3 and in Kvitova’s half. Agnieszka Radwanska is #4 and in Halep’s half. Muguruza — who, as mentioned, would be at least the #3 seed, and maybe #2, under the new rankings — is instead #5 and in Halep’s quarter. Lucie Safarova is still sick and unable to play (meaning that we have only two of last week’s Top Five), so Ana Ivanovic is seeded #6 and in Pennetta’s quarter even though she is no longer Top Ten. Carla Suarez Navarro is #7; she is in Kvitova’s quarter. Caroline Wozniacki is seeded #8 and is in Radwanska’s quarter.

In a small irony, the player who just took Wozniacki’s place in the Top Ten, Angelique Kerber, is #10 here and seeded to face Wozniacki in the Round of Sixteen. Halep’s opponent in that round would be #15 Roberta Vinci, who has been in very good form lately. Muguruza’s third round opponent is supposed to be Belinda Bencic, although Bencic was unable to finish at Wuhan. Radwanska has drawn #14 Madison Keys. Ivanovic is up against #9 Karolina Pliskova, who is now the higher-ranked of the two. Pennetta is supposed to face #16 Elina Svitolina. Suarez Navarro has drawn #12 Timea Bacsinszky, who has been out for the last several weeks. And Kvitova would face #13 Andrea Petkovic.

Even in such an attenuated event, there are a lot of tough unseeded customers. Halep might play Alize Cornet in round two, although Cornet is slumping. Vinci is likely to open against Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who isn’t slumping at all. Bencic will open against Madison Brengle, which is a tough test for a player who is hurting. Radwanska’s first opponent is CoCo Vandeweghe, who is another injury victim but who was playing very well before that. Keys opens against Kristina Mladenovic, who beat her in Wuhan. Kerber will have to overcome the strong defense of Jelena Jankovic or Dominika Cibulkova. Ivanovic will face Venus Williams in her second round, assuming Venus’s Wuhan problems aren’t too bad. Pliskova opens against Sloane Stephens, then whatever is left of Svetlana Kuznetsova. Bacsinszky will start against upset artist Camila Giorgi. Petkovic will start against Eugenie Bouchard (assuming Bouchard has managed to get in shape by then), then Samantha Stosur, who just missed seeding. And the ever-erratic Kvitova will open against the never-erratic Sara Errani, who is the top unseeded player based on current rankings.

The Rankings

Add one more to our never-ending catalog of strange weeks. Last week, when Beijing 2014 came off, we went from having four Premier Mandatories on the record to having just three, so everyone got to add in an optional event. This week, that reverses: A new Premier Mandatory comes on, so everyone loses an optional event. For most players, that will be their sixteenth event, although a few players have fairly big points from the events last year at this time: Linz (won by Karolina Pliskova over Camila Giorgi, with Karin Knapp and Anna-Lena Friedsam semifinalists), Osaka (won by Samantha Stosur over Zarina Diyas, with Elina Svitolina and Luksika Khumkhum semifinalists), and Tianjin (won by Alison Riske over Belinda Bencic, with Zheng Saisai and Peng Shuai semifinalists).

That’s not the most encouraging list of players with points to defend. Diyas and Riske have been slumping ever since, and Peng (who retired from her match least year) has been injured just about the whole time since. And can you recall anything Khumkhum has done lately? Khumkhum is likely to end up below #150, Diyas can probably forget about staying Top Fifty, Riske might end up below #70, Peng will pretty well vanish.

At the top, nothing. Serena is of course safe at #1. What’s more, Simona Halep is secure at #2. Below that, things get interesting. Petra Kvitova has a chance to overtake Maria Sharapova to earn the #3 ranking, although she’ll need a title. On the other hand, Kvitova could still lose the #4 spot to Garbine Muguruza (what that will take will depend on how Muguruza does in Wuhan; she may already have lost it. And if Muguruza wins Wuhan, she too will have a shot to pass Sharapova). And everyone in the Top Fifteen has a decent chance to make the Top Ten this week.

In the Race, we’d say (with Serena out) that Halep, Sharapova, Kvitova, and Muguruza are set, and that Safarova and Kerber are close to set. That leaves two spots. We’ll update you on that regularly during the next week.

Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.