Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.

This is the week when most guys give up.

To be more specific, “the week when most guys give up on the Race.” There are still a dozen or so guys who could theoretically, if everything went right, pass David Ferrer to earn the last spot in London. But everything has to go right. Including winning a title this week — probably winning Vienna, the week’s only 500 point event. So: Anyone still in the Race but not in Vienna has probably given up. Indeed, there were several players who are formally eliminated by the fact that they didn’t sign up for Vienna.

And, yes, most of the chief Race contenders are there. Richard Gasquet isn’t in the field, but David Ferrer, Kevin Anderson, John Isner, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga all are. Ferrer is the #1 seed, with Anderson #2. Isner is #3 and in Anderson’s half. Tsonga, even though he is now the top player in the field other than Ferrer, is #4 and in Ferrer’s half. Too bad Ferrer and Tsonga have to meet in the semifinal rather than the final, since they’re the two leading candidates for the last London spot. On the other hand, Ferrer is pretty well rested, and Tsonga will be tired — and, because this is a 500 rather than a 250 point event, there are no byes. So Tsonga may have his work cut out for him to even make it to the semifinal.

The field isn’t nearly as deep below the four London contenders. Dominic Thiem is the #5 seed and in Anderson’s quarter. Gael Monfils will make his latest injury comeback as the #6 seed; he’s in Tsonga’s quarter. Ivo Karlovic will try to extend his ace total as the #7 seed; he’s in Isner’s quarter, so we could have a very wild quarterfinal! And Fabio Fognini is #8 and in Ferrer’s quarter. There aren’t a lot of really strong unseeded players, but Tsonga will open against Tommy Haas, and Monfils starts against Thomas Bellucci. Karlovic’s first opponent is Andreas Seppi. Anderson’s second round may be against Jiri Vesely. Surely the worst draw of all, though, is Thiem’s; he opens against Jerzy Janowicz, then Alexandr Dolgopolov or Steve Johnson.

Tomas Berdych, meanwhile, continues his quest to play every event on the schedule except those that might actually help him. He’s the #1 seed at Stockholm — a 250 point event, which really isn’t worth the effort for him. The really crazy thing is, after playing every event since right after the US Open, he took a wildcard here! The guy seems to be making more appeals for money than an American presidential candidate.

It’s also somewhat strange to see Richard Gasquet here as the #2 seed. Berdych may be doing his best to kill himself with overplaying, but he doesn’t have to worry about qualifying for London. Not really; he’s safe. Gasquet, by contrast, is #10 and needs to earn some serious points. Yet he chose to play Stockholm. The same is true, even more so, for #3 seed Gilles Simon, who is in Gasquet’s half. He’s only #15 in the Race; his decision to play here doesn’t quite eliminate him, but it’s close. Bernard Tomic’s result at Shanghai gave him a slight Race window, but he was already signed up here, which pretty well closes it. He’s the #4 seed, in Berdych’s half.

In the quarterfinal, Berdych would face #5 seed Grigor Dimitrov, who is really slumping; Gasquet has drawn #6 Jeremy Chardy; Simon is supposed to face #7 Jack Sock; and Tomic is in the same quarter as #8 Gilles Muller. There aren’t a lot of really strong unseeded players, but Tomic will open against either Sam Querrey or Marcos Baghdatis; Simon starts against Leonard Mayer; and Sock might face Fernando Verdasco in round two. Perhaps the most interesting unseeded name, though, is Jarkko Nieminen, who made his first-ever final here 14 years ago (and first earned everyone’s attention as a result); this will of course be his last appearance, and he has fallen so far that he needed a wildcard to get in. If he can win his opener, he’ll face Dimitrov in round two.

Moscow is the biggest event on the women’s side this week, but on the men’s, it’s clearly the “leftover” event — the only one with no Top Ten players. Indeed, top seed Marin Cilic is the only Top Twenty player, and the only one with any Race chance — but, as with the players at Stockholm, his decision to play here pretty well ended his hopes. Roberto Bautista Agut is the #2 seed. Viktor Troicki, who has struggled lately, is the #3 seed; he is in Cilic’s half and is the last Top Thirty player. Philipp Kohlschreiber, who hasn’t played in the last several weeks, is #4 and has the last bye. Rounding out the seeds are #5 Pablo Cuevas, drawn against Kohlschreiber; #6 Borna Coric, drawn against Troicki; #7 Joao Sousa, drawn against Bautista Agut; and #8 Mikhail Kukushkin, drawn against Cilic. That gives us a cutoff for seeding around #50; there really don’t appear to be any significant unseeded threats, unless wildcard Andrey Rublev can do something against Kukushkin.

The Rankings

Even though it’s two weeks to Paris this year, in 2014, this was the next-to-last week of the Race. The two events were the 500 point events at Basel and Valencia. Roger Federer won Basel, over David Goffin, with Ivo Karlovic and Borna Coric semifinalists; note that neither Federer nor Goffin is playing this week. Andy Murray won Valencia, over Tommy Robredo; David Ferrer and Jeremy Chardy were semifinalists. As with Basel, neither finalist is playing this week in 2015.

That means no movement anywhere near the top. Novak Djokovic will of course remain #1. Murray and Federer will remain #2 and #3, with their relative points gap unchanged although they will slip a little closer to #4 Stan Wawrinka. #5 Tomas Berdych might up his lead on #6 Kei Nishikori and #7 Rafael Nadal a little, but hardly enough to matter. A title would take David Ferrer close to Nadal, but not close enough to overtake him. On the other hand, Ferrer can’t fall. We don’t yet know whether Milos Raonic or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be #9 next week, but whichever one it is, they’ll likely stay in that order. We could see a lot of movement in the #10-#15 range, though, with Tsonga, Anderson, Gasquet, Isner, Cilic, and Simon — the current #10 to #15 players — all in action.

David Goffin will likely lose one ranking spot, and just possibly two. Ivo Karlovic might lose his Top Twenty spot, probably to Monfils or Fognini. Borna Coric is likely to fall out of the Top Forty. Tommy Robredo also appears bound below #40. Jeremy Chardy could lose his Top Thirty spot.

In the Race, the big question is whether anyone can gain enough ground on David Ferrer to matter. We’ll of course be tracking that all week.

Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.